这是Interfax国际文传电讯社从我博客里翻译过去的专栏文章。原地址链接  中文链接

Internet and communications expert Liu Xing Liang, president of software research and development firm Soften.cn., shares six hot industry trends in 2010 with Interfax.

Internet: hot sectors in 2010" alt="The Internet: hot sectors in 2010" align="left" src="http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src="http://static2.photo.sina.com.cn/middle/56c35a55t80fb48f09a51&690" />Internet: hot sectors in 2010" alt="The Internet: hot sectors in 2010" align="right" src="http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src="http://static9.photo.sina.com.cn/middle/56c35a55t80fb593ceda8&690" /> Internet and communications expert Liu Xing Liang, presidentofsoftware research and development firm Soften.cn., shares six hot industry trends in 2010 with Interfax.

Shanghai. March 4. INTERFAX-CHINA - Liu Xing Liang is a committee member of both the Chinese E-commerce Association and the Chinese Computing Association and a frequent contributor to major online industry and trade publications including iResearch.com, ccidnet.com and Sina.com, for which he regularly writes a blog. Liu is the author of several books including the Third Wave: the Future of the Internet and China's Transformation. Below are Liu's picks for Internet-related growth sectors in 2010.

1.      Micro-blogging

Twitter, the most well known micro-blog on the Internet, has become one of the most popular Web sites in the world. Micro-blogging has become a trend among celebrities and businesses alike, so much so that even government agencies like the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have incorporated micro-blogging as part of their official communications platforms.  Leading micro-blog sites in China include Sina, Sohu and NetEase.

Micro-blogging has become immensely popular in China, as it has throughout the rest of the world, and Sina blogs are often cited in the mass media.

The function will be a hot spot for innovation and investment in the short term and become an essential part of major websites in 2010 and in the near future, a Web site lacking a micro-blog function will no longer be considered as a large or medium-sized Web site.

2.      Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is a way of computing, via the Internet, by sharing resources instead of using software or storage on a local computer. It is an outgrowth of the ease-of-access to remote computing sites provided by the Internet.

The term cloud is used as a metaphor for the Internet, based on the cloud drawings used in computer network diagrams to depict the Internet and its underlying infrastructure. Typical cloud computing providers deliver common business applications online which are accessed from a web browser, while the software and data are stored on servers.

Clouds have five essential characteristics: on-demand self-service, broad network access, resource pooling, rapid elasticity and measured service.

The computing capability provides an abstraction between the computing resource and its servers, storage and networks, enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources.

Cloud Calculation provides a similar function to an ammeter and circuit. With an ammeter and a circuit, the need to generate electricity is eliminated, simply install the ammeter and pay accordingly. Similarly, with a gas pipe, the user no longer needs to buy bottled gas but can retrieve it straight from the source.

Today, in order to establish a new company, one is still required to buy the hard and software, including several computers and servers. With the onset of cloud computing, if we look back on this in several years, it will seem silly. In the past, one was required to buy an electricity generator in order to open a factory, but who does that these days?

Such is the new reality brought forth by cloud calculation. I expect the number of cloud service providers in China to double in 2010.

3.  Online gaming

Online gaming is a likely suspect, and its no news that the sector is set to boom as 3G takes off in China. In 2010, the sector is expected to grow by 30 percent year-on-year by the most conservative estimates, and within this sector, mobile gaming will be the most dynamic.

The growing prevalence of mobile application stores will lessen the reliance of mobile content providers (CP) on mobile service providers (SPs). Mobile game developers and CPs are becoming desirable partners for a number of industry players, including telecom operators, equipment manufacturers, wireless value-added(WVAS ) SPs and various investors.

The online gaming industry will further experience an industry wide shift with a growing focus on mobile gaming, similar to when computer games went online a few years ago.

4. E-commerce

Electronic commerce (e-commerce) is now entering a new stage of development following a decade of rapid growth. The consumer-to-consumer model is currently the mainstream in China, going against a more prevalent trend of business-to-consumer (B2C) in other markets.

B2C is expected to become a more popular model in China in 2010 as an increasing number of well-established traditional enterprises adopt B2C platforms to expand their businesses.

The Internet is now in its third stage of development, in which it is now being introduced to traditional industries, giving birth to an entirely new business model, which poses an existential threat to existing B2C players, organization structures and operational models. The industry may undergo a transformation.

5. Enterprise Internet Solution

As more traditional enterprises undertake Internet operations, a new set of solutions will be needed, especially with the emergence of cloud computing as a major trend.

6. The Hulu.com model

Currently, there are two types of video Web sites. The first are web-based commercial-supported sites which redistribute copyrighted content in partnership with large production companies and broadcasters.  Hulu.com follows this model, operating cooperatively with the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) Universal and a number of other major American networks. The second type is follows a user based video sharing model, such as YouTube, and is distinguished by original and user generated content.

Video sharing sites have enjoyed rapid growth over the last few years, but the Chinese market landscape was altered at the end of 2009. A number of major sites like Sohu and Ku6 have eliminated the broadcast of pirated videos as copyright disputes dominated industry headlines, signaling a decline in the video sharing model. Web giants like Baidu and NetEase have commenced online video operations, stressing the distribution of only copyrighted content.

For advertisers, which are subject to penalties if a site is busted for copyright infringement, the first model is much more attractive and Chinese sites following the Hulu model will surely profit.

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